Volume 15 Issue 4 - Winter 2021

Letter from Editor

Strategic Studies Quarterly: From the Beginning

Graham Allison and the Thucydides Trap Myth

Unquestionably, China is rising, but a common theory developed by Graham Allison his 2017 book Destined for War known as the “Thucydides Trap” suffers from three major shortcomings: unclear definitions, omitted variable bias, and selection effect. This analysis of power transitions should not be used as a guide for understanding the US-China relationship.

More Is Not Always Better: Oversight of the Military

An analysis of three case studies reveals the Air Force does not necessarily gain autonomy when government principals are divided over policy, contradicting current scholarship on the issue. Varying levels of service autonomy under divided principals requires tailored approaches to policy development and implementation.

North America’s Imperative: Strengthening Deterrence by Denial

In today’s threat environment, adversaries can hold the continent hostage unless leaders can bolster its deterrence posture. Rather than deterrence by punishment, however, the focus of NORAD, USNORTHCOM, and the CJOC must be on deterrence by denial and increasing the costs of actions by adversaries should they pursue an attack on North America.

Will Emerging Technology Cause Nuclear War?: Bringing Geopolitics Back In

In order to fully understand the link between nuclear stability and emerging technology, the current geopolitical situation must be accounted for. Incorporating emerging technologies into US, Ally and partner militaries will likely reinforce the prevailing global strategic stability.

Sophons, Wallfacers, Swordholders, and the Cosmic Safety Notice: Strategic Thought in Chinese Science Fiction

Science fiction, due to its ability to encourage creative thinking in environments estranged from our own, can be employed in strategy development and inspiration. Liu Cixin’s Three-Body Problem trilogy focuses on galactic relations and defense in a rich and nuanced way and provides insight into Chinese thought. An analysis of four strategies—sophons, wallfacers, swordholders, and the cosmic safety notice—highlights the ways in which Chinese strategic thinking systematically differs from Western modes of thinking.

Six Steps to the Effective Use of Airpower: On "The Drawdown Asymmetry: Why Ground Forces Will Depart Iraq but Air Forces Will Stay"

Then-Lieutenant Colonel Clinton S. Hinote’s 2008 analysis of the Iraq drawdown and the continued role of airpower in that conflict serves as a foundation for six steps to the effective use of airpower today.

Cultivating Future Airpower Strategists: On "Developing Twenty-First-Century Airpower Strategists"

In 2008, Major General R. Michael Worden forecast specific challenges for airpower strategists including emerging technology, transnational terrorist organizations, an explosion of information power, budgets, and resourcing. His predictions have borne out in what the Air Force faces today, and Air University is responding, providing the next generation of airpower strategists.

A Case for Strategic Design: On "A Diplomatic Surge in Afghanistan"

Daryl Morini’s 2010 article argued that a diplomatic surge was the only way to achieve a lasting peace and stability in Afghanistan. A decade later it is unknown whether Morini’s surge would have worked. What is clear is that a lack of strategic design contributed to US and Coalition failures in Afghanistan.

Leveraging Regional Partners: On "US Grand Strategy, the Rise of China, and US National Security for East Asia"

Writing in 2013, Robert Ross correctly predicted the rise of China as the leading focus of US grand strategy. But Ross’s opposition to strategic partnerships with mainland Asian nation ignores the essential benefits these nations could provide in US grand strategy vis-à-vis China.

Outline of Strategic Aerial Culture

In contemporary conflicts, it is unlikely countries with substantial aerial assets will intervene in a theater without controlling the airspace, even temporarily. With its relatively small footprint on the ground, airpower is a tool of choice for political engagement, fueling the notion of an aerial strategic culture.