Warfare in the Robotics Age by Ash Rossiter and Peter Layton. Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2024, 257 pp.
In Warfare in the Robotics Age, authors Ash Rossiter and Peter Layton examine the ongoing robotics revolution, commonly called the fourth industrial revolution. Rossiter serves as an associate professor of international security at the United Arab Emirates’ Khalifa University, and Layton is both a Royal United Services Institute associate fellow and a visiting fellow at Griffith University’s Griffith Asia Institute. Together, the authors analyze the impact that advancing robotics technology will have on strategic affairs and future warfare’s character and conduct.
The authors argue that advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics could drastically change the conduct of warfare by introducing new forms of fighting, changing the nature and frequency of strategic-level interactions between actors, and creating new conditions for how wars are conducted and violent tactics are employed within the realm of international relations. While Rossiter and Layton acknowledge the revolutionary potential of robotics and AI within the conduct of warfare, they feel that limitations and challenges to the widespread adoption of autonomous robotic warfare exist and stop short of making concrete predictions on exactly how or when these technological advancements will affect the character and conduct of war. Yet they provide general predictions regarding the most probable near- to mid-term military robotics applications.
Throughout this book, the authors focus on three types of military robotics advancements that have the potential to bring about the most revolutionary changes: AI, autonomous systems, and advanced super-computing. Warfare in the Robotics Age proposes that implementing AI systems—specifically second-wave AI systems incorporating adaptive learning—has the greatest potential to revolutionize warfare in the long term but also presents the most significant challenges due to AI’s unpredictability. The book gives considerable attention to autonomous systems as first-wave versions, like drones, are currently in service. Those systems will continue to play a significant role in military operations in the future as their capabilities mature and they incorporate AI. Rossiter and Layton argue that autonomous systems—mainly vehicles working in conjunction with humans on battlefields—represent one of the most likely scenarios for robotics use. Lastly, the book examines the impact of super-computing, asserting that states that successfully harness the ability to process big data and incorporate edge computing and cloud computing will be able to drastically improve situational awareness, decision-making, and command and control capabilities in the battlespace.
To support their arguments in a comprehensive and holistic way, the authors draw from a wide variety of sources, including science and technology manuals, books and articles published by notable leaders in international politics, transcripts from military leaders and defense industry officials, tactics manuals, historical and financial records, and their own original research. While most of the source material is qualitative, the authors also incorporate an adequate amount of statistical analysis where necessary, such as in comparing defense spending or analyzing data-processing speeds and capacities of automated weapon systems. The book thus highlights interrelated contributions within the field of robotics and international politics.
In the first four chapters, the authors spend significant time explaining the key concepts and terminology associated with robotics, enhancing readers’ understanding of the fourth industrial revolution and the potential tactical and strategic-level implications of advancements in the field. They also examine key developments in robotics technology throughout military history, such as the earliest forms of machine-guided munitions in World War II and the Central Intelligence Agency drones that first utilized remote targeting capabilities in 2002. Each of these instances drastically changed how wars were fought at the time, and their inclusion demonstrates how emergent technologies can make revolutionary impacts.
The book effectively builds on these examples and moves through modern-day robotics initiatives within the separate services of the US military. The comparison to initiatives of other major powers like China and Russia paints a clear picture of how current research and development efforts could reshape the military force structure of each country by incorporating AI and autonomous machines.
Warfare in the Robotics Age also articulates the difficulties associated with adopting and implementing advanced robotics technology. It discusses research and development challenges, highlighting disparities between the capabilities of great powers and developing countries. Similarly, it describes how technology diffusion occurs quickly once an innovative technology is developed. Historical examples illustrate the doctrinal and structural barriers within military organizations that tend to impede the progression of newly developed technologies. Lastly, the book points to current and future legal and ethical concerns regarding the use of robots in warfare. Each of these challenges supports the authors’ views on robot involvement in future warfare and their potential impacts on international politics.
As mentioned, one of the book’s most significant contributions is its identification of the numerous ways robotics can influence the conduct of war. It not only analyzes the impacts of robotics-enhanced offensive weapons but also details the significance of data-processors, cloud and edge computing, supply and maintenance networks, autonomous vehicles, and equipment and weapons production systems that can revolutionize warfare. These potential advancements—supported by ongoing innovation efforts by the United States, China, and Russia—drive the book’s two general predictions about the near- to mid-term future of robotic warfare: robots will replace a portion of the humans required in combat, and those robots will likely be small autonomous swarming robots that are relatively dispensable. These predictions are a key takeaway, as they dispel any fears that the future of robotic warfare resembles a scene from a Terminator movie with autonomous robots indiscriminately killing humans.
Examining more than just offensive robots also opens the door for deep intellectual thought into the multitude of ways robotics technology can be applied to the military and society. In this vein, Rossiter and Layton highlight the need for enhanced civilian and military partnerships in the future. Historically, the military focuses on innovation only when a strategic need arises. In several instances, military technology advances have driven civilian sector modernization. Yet the book points out that commercial or private entities drive the ongoing fourth industrial revolution, and thus increased collaboration with the civilian sector is critical to harnessing any potential revolutionary technology.
This book also clearly explains the implications of robotics revolutions on international politics, arguing that using advanced robotics can drastically alter the balance of power dynamics within regions where robotics technology is employed. Smaller but wealthier nations possessing technologically superior systems could gain a significant advantage over larger states without advanced robotics. Likewise, the diffusion of such technology to nonstate actors could lead to incredibly powerful terrorist organizations. With technological diffusion likely to occur rapidly, a robotics arms race could quickly escalate into a security dilemma in some areas of the world. Replacing humans with robotic systems on the battlefield could also lead to less moral opposition to warfare and increasing levels of conflict.
Overall, the authors address how advanced robotics technology can alter warfare and international politics in clearly focused chapters. They offer a well-balanced approach to presenting historical evidence, describing ongoing efforts and modern-day application of robotics, predicting the future of robotics, and discussing their global implications. This book is highly informative and will pique the interest of anyone seeking to better understand the advantages and challenges of implementing advanced robotics technology in military organizations and society as a whole.
Lieutenant Colonel Tyler J. Hughes, USAF