China as Peer Competitor?

In China as Peer Competitor? Trends in Nuclear Weapons, Space, and Information Warfare Lt Col Kathryn L. Gauthier analyzes the potential for China to emerge as a peer competitor of the United States in the coming decades. First, she examines two traditional pillars of national strength— China’s status as a nuclear weapons state and as a space power. Second, she then explores China’s growing focus on information warfare (IW) as a means to wage asymmetric warfare against a technologically advanced adversary. Third, the author carefully examines the status of the three pro grams, highlights areas of concern and potential conflict with the United States, and analyzes the implications of these issues for the United States. The author concludes that China does have the potential to become a peer competitor, based on a number of factors. The United States’s military advantages over China are narrowing in the critical areas of nuclear weapons, space technology, and information warfare. China is developing nuclear weapons with increased accuracy, mobility, and range. Beijing’s growing prowess in space—including a possible manned presence within the decade—will also provide it significant benefits in the military realm. In selected areas, Beijing has demonstrated its ability to "leapfrog" over more rudimentary stages of technological development. Finally, China’s previously rapid economic growth has supported technological modernization and an improved defense posture. Colonel Gauthier emphasizes that Beijing does not— either philosophically or militarily—have to approach US levels of capability or proficiency to pose a threat to the United States or to US interests in the region.