A Chinese technical assessment on the U.S. Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program (GSSAP) satellites from April last year revealed China’s deepening analysis of U.S. space domain awareness (SDA) capabilities. The Chinese have moved beyond describing U.S. SDA systems, and have begun analyzing these satellites’ on-orbit behavior in academic journals. In a recent example, western media last year flagged a Chinese language article that published a list of close approaches between GSSAP and Chinese satellites; the article’s authors also simulated one of GSSAP’s optical payloads, at varying distances. When compared with other Chinese evaluations of GSSAP’s pattern of life, including more recent assessments, China’s ability to track GSSAP is improving in two noteworthy ways. First, China is not alone in improving its ability to track GSSAP, but in one instance, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was able to track GSSAP-3, even in the face of limited western data. Second, China’s space practitioners are becoming more confident in publicizing close approaches within 100 kilometers (km) between GSSAP and Chinese satellites, probably because they can build off of research directly published by the PLA. Another reason for Chinese academics’ forward leaning assessments of close approaches is that earlier this year, China implemented its national standard for space object orbital data. Armed with their own analysis and empowered to publicize it, Chinese experts are preparing to fill the international discourse gap on GSSAP’s operations.
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