Volume 02 Issue 01, Spring 2020

Published March 10, 2020
Journal of European, Middle Eastern, & African Affairs / Maxwell, AFB, AL

ARTICLES
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Generals Testify at Senate Hearing on FY 2021 Defense Budget
General Tod D. Wolters, USAF & General Stephen R. Lyons, USA
On 25 February 2020, Gen Tod D. Wolters, USAF, commander of US European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), and Gen Stephen R. Lyons, US Army, commander of US Transportation Command, testified at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the defense authorization request for fiscal year 2021 and the Future Years Defense Program. The following is an edited and condensed transcript of their testimony, focusing primarily on General Wolters testimony.
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The US Withdrawal and the Scramble for Syria
Dr. Wojciech Michnik & Dr. Spyridon Plakoudas
Amid an outbreak of protests and recriminations against the Trump administration for its “betrayal” of the erstwhile allies in the struggle against the Islamic State (ISIS), the following questions must be answered: (1) could such a situation have been avoided; (2) how will this policy impact on the power and prestige of the United States in the Middle East and beyond; (3) what does this incident indicate about the use of proxies by the United States in the Middle East and beyond; and (4) how does this affect the regional balance of power and major powers’ competition in Syria? With the benefit of painstaking research on the relations between the United States and the Syrian Kurds, this article will endeavor to examine a situation that is still unfolding and offer answers to the above four questions, while attempting also to identify winners and losers.

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The Contract Broken, and Restored, Part II
Dr. Forrest L. Marion
This article examines the history of air rescue operations and the failure to properly plan for and deploy adequate resources to that effort during the early years of Operation Inherent Resolve.

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Why Are Warm-Water Ports Important to Russian Security?
Tanvi Chauhan
This article aims to examine why Russia’s warm-water ports are so important to Russian security. First, the article defines what security encompasses in relation to ports. Second, the article presents two case studies: the Crimean port of Sevastopol and the Syrian port of Tartus. This article proves that warm-water ports are important to Russian security because they enable Russia to control the sea, project power, maintain good order, and observe a maritime consensus. Each of these categorical reasons are then analyzed in the Crimean and Syrian context. The results are compared in regional perspective, followed by concluding remarks on what the findings suggest about Russian foreign policy in retrospect, as well as Russian security in the future.

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The Struggle for Air Superiority
Dr. Tal Tovy
The goal of this article is to examine the aerial campaigns between Israel and the Arab states (with an emphasis on Egypt and Syria). A discussion of the operational history of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) between the years 1967 and 1982 will be used to analyze an additional chapter in the historical struggle to gain air superiority, while also highlighting the importance of gaining air superiority and maintaining it over armies that rely on a ground-based air defense (GBAD) to prevent it. A further goal is to examine the formation and implementation of the various strategies applied by the belligerents in their confrontations and the system of learning lessons and applying them from one campaign to another. For example, beginning in 1969, the air war in the Middle East turned into a lethal encounter between American and Soviet technologies and served as an important operational laboratory for both superpowers. This trend continues today, and therefore an analysis of the history of the air wars in the Middle East can provide insights and lessons for those that are currently operating against advanced and dense GBAD systems.

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The Foreign Policy of Large Democratizing African States
Dr. Stephen F. Burgess
Large country size (measured by gross domestic product), democratizing regime type, and two exceptional leaders created sufficient conditions for innovative foreign policy leadership by two African states, including the creation of regional institutions committed to democracy and human rights norms and the willingness to intervene to stabilize war-torn states and uphold human rights and democratic values. The global democratic wave of the 1980s and 1990s provided pressures from outside and inside Africa for the promotion of democracy and human rights. In the 2000s, South Africa’s Thabo Mbeki and Nigeria’s Olusegun Obasanjo led in founding the African Union, the New Partnership for African Development, and other institutions that included democratic and human rights norms. These leaders helped make similar innovations in the Southern African Development Community and Economic Community of West African States respectively. Their nations’ relatively large country size provided the basis for “symbolic hegemony”—leadership in creating norms and peacemaking. However, these states often have lacked the power and leadership to pressure other countries to democratize and observe human rights norms. In addition, less exceptional leaders in the 2010s accompanied a recession in foreign policy leadership, including a diminished commitment to democracy and human rights that coincided with the beginning of an autocratic wave. The two cases demonstrate that large size, assertive leadership, and democratizing regime type can produce innovative foreign policies that include limited democracy and human rights promotion.

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How the Israel Defense Forces Might Confront Hezbollah

Dr. Ehud Eilam
The inevitability of another war between Israel and the Hezbollah terrorist organization seems nearly certain; however, at present, neither belligerent in this longstanding feud desires immediate conflict. The two sides confronted each other in Lebanon in the 1980s and in the 1990s, until the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdraw from that country in 2000, concluding a campaign that had come to be known as the “Israeli Vietnam.” In 2006, war erupted between the two combatants again, lasting a mere 34 days. That war ended in a draw. Since then, the two sides have been preparing for another round.

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Aid to Anti-Assad Forces Became the Most Expensive US Covert Action
Dr. David S. Sorenson, interviewed by Nuño Rodríguez
In December 2019, political scientist Mr. Nuño Rodríguez, founder and director of the Quixote Globe, interviewed Dr. David S. Sorenson, professor of international security studies at the US Air War College (AWC). Dr. Sorenson received his PhD from the University of Denver and has served on the faculties of the University of Colorado at Denver, Denison University, and the Mershon Center at The Ohio State University before joining AWC. Dr. Sorenson has served as chair of the International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association and chair of the International Security and Arms Control Section of the American Political Science Association. He has written numerous books on defense policy, military aviation, and Middle Eastern affairs.

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Strategic Challenges in the Baltic Sea Region: Russia, Deterrence, and Reassurance
Edited by Ann-Sofie Dahl. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2018
Reviewed by Leandro Guimaraes Froes
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization returns to be the topic of discussion, as the current rhetoric of government leaders challenging the efficacy of NATO and the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula threatens the West’s false sense of peace. The United States calls on the NATO members to increase their spending on defense and reach the 2-percent margin, and some NATO members question the American commitment to Article 5. Meanwhile, Russia slowly de-fies the sovereignty of the Baltic States and the integrity of NATO.

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The End of Strategic Stability? Nuclear Weapons and the Challenge of Regional Rivalries
Edited by Lawrence Rubin and Adam N. Stulberg. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2018
Reviewed by Seth Conor McGeehan
Lawrence Robin and Adam Stulberg have assembled an expert group of authors to help explore the complex landscape that is strategic stability in the modern era. They believe strategic stability “refers to a condition in which adversaries understand that altering military force posture in response to vulnerability—whether to avoid being emasculated or to preempt one’s opponent—would be either futile or foolish.” In the subsequent chapters, the respective authors detail how the nation they are writing about define this concept, those nations’ current trajectories, and how each trajectory stands to alter the overall status quo. In addition to state actors, some chapters allude to the ways nonstate entities or cross-domain deterrence may also factor into the stability equation.

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Artificial Intelligence, China, Russia, and the Global Order
Edited by Nicholas Wright. Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University Press, 2019
Reviewed by Dr. Srini Sitaraman
This edited volume aims to prepare Anglo-American security practitioners for the impact of AI-related technologies on a country’s domestic political system. This book contains 27 chapters, which is divided into six sections with 24 expert contributors drawing their insights from mixed professional backgrounds. Particularly, this book traces the differential impact of AI technology on competing domestic regime types. Chapters in the book describe how China will seek to further increase its authoritarian control by utilizing AI, while making its citizens prosperous and shielding them from external knowledge influences. The Chinese model of digital authoritarianism or digital social and political control is likely to emerge as a major and direct rival to free, open, and democratic society—a model championed by the Anglo-American alliance. The Russian model, offers a hybrid approach that relies on a variety of manipulative digital tools to destabilize challenger regimes while maintaining tight state control over critical resources and quashing political rivals 2003.