Historic PRC–Taiwan Provocation Cycle

Topic Sponsor: PACAF

Provide a historic analysis of PRC military provocation toward Taiwan through the lens of politics (US administration, PRC leadership, TWN leadership), PRC military capabilities, US regional posture, economic context, and information environments.

• Albert, Maj Stephen, "Defense of Taiwan is in the U.S. National Interest" Air Force Fellows paper, 2022, 2 pgs. 
   
• Alves, Capt. Brent A., "Taiwanese Sovereignty & The United States' Strategic Deterrence of China," SOS AUAR 2021 (ISR section), 11 pgs.
   
• Carignan, Joseph, "Asymmetric or Stupid:* The Case against War with China over Taiwan," AWC PSP, 2022, 35 pgs.
   
• Lamarand, Lt. Col. Jesse, "Deterring China: A Deterrence Approach Based On Understanding The Sources Of Chinese Conduct And Chinese Campaign Science " AWC PSP, 2021, 29 pgs. 
   
• Silva, Lt. Col. Sarah, "Balance of Power and the Utility of Concessions in Triangular Diplomacy," SAASS Thesis, 2022, 80 pgs. 
   
• Stinson, Joshua S., "Stubborn Giants: Assessing Resolve between the United States and China," SAASS thesis, 2020, 123 pgs.
• Waldrip, Erik, "Has the Ukraine War Influenced China's Calculus for an Invasion of Taiwan?" GCPME thesis, 2024, 48 pgs.