Black Swan Capabilities

  • Published
  • By JSOU

Historically, technological innovations drive changes to the ways in which conflicts are fought. However, it is not always easy to see which technologies will drive such changes, or the ways that such technologies will be incorporated and deployed by militaries. New technologies in a variety of areas offer both promise and peril and demand our attention as they provide the potential for black swan (improbable, high-impact) or gray rhino (probable, high-impact, but neglected) events.7 How can the SOE best identify emerging technologies? Do SOF have strategic blind spots when it comes to emerging technologies—is it focused in certain areas but not in others? How can the SOE assess or forecast the impact of emerging technologies? How can SOF experiment and incorporate emerging disruptive technologies within current fiscal constraints? How can the SOE best share new knowledge of military applications of emerging technologies across its organizations? Is there a need for new statutory and other relevant authorities for public–private sector cooperation to provide SOF access to the latest innovations? How can SOF leverage and explore new technologies while limiting their exposure to the risks that accompany these technologies? What are the emerging technologies, such as AI/ML, neuromorphic and biotechnologies, and new power sources, which could affect SOF capabilities, both positively and negatively? Are there risks associated with reliance on and expectations of technology?