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Risks to the Strategic Domain of Space From An Ablation Cascade

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  • By 595 GC

Nuclear Deterrence capabilities rely upon the domain of outer space, which is particularly vulnerable to an ablation cascade, also known as Kessler Syndrome, where an increasing series of collisions between objects can render the environment unsafe for further use. While space-faring nations have a vested interest to avoid such a scenario, non-space faring adversaries may find it useful for denying the United States strategic capabilities which operate in LEO (Low Earth Orbit). What are the risks of an adversary initiating an ablation cascade on the use of strategic assets in the domain of outer space? Are there any protective or mitigating measures that can be undertaken? Could a revision of the Outer Space Treaty include weapons or other devices to combat debris that are not technically armaments but pose an equivalent risk to satellites, the strategic use of space, and other human activities?

Reference: Bohumil Dobos and Jakub Prazak, "Master Spoiler: A Strategic Value of Kessler Syndrome," Defense Studies 22 vol. 1 (2022): 123-137.